Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-20 19:30 | BAY vs KOE | 82.1% | 10.2% | 7.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:30 | ELV vs SCF | 33.3% | 22.2% | 44.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:30 | BMG vs BVB | 20.9% | 20.8% | 58.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:30 | FCU vs RBL | 23.7% | 20.4% | 55.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:30 | SGE vs TSG | 36.7% | 20.7% | 42.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 14:30 | B04 vs SCP | 65.4% | 17.8% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 17:30 | S04 vs VFB | 30.3% | 23.7% | 46.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-22 14:30 | FCA vs M05 | 46.5% | 22.2% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 16:30 | SVW vs HSV | 46.1% | 24.0% | 29.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.