Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 19:30 | HSV vs BMG | 45.1% | 23.8% | 31.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:30 | SCP vs SGE | 38.4% | 22.7% | 39.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:30 | M05 vs BAY | 14.7% | 15.2% | 70.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:30 | RBL vs FCA | 63.2% | 17.8% | 19.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 14:30 | BVB vs ELV | 68.3% | 17.2% | 14.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 17:30 | VFB vs SVW | 58.9% | 19.8% | 21.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:30 | KOE vs B04 | 28.6% | 21.3% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:30 | SCF vs FCU | 57.6% | 20.9% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 18:30 | TSG vs S04 | 57.7% | 21.0% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.