Gameweek 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 19:30 | ELV vs M05 | 39.7% | 22.8% | 37.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 14:30 | S04 vs RBL | 25.4% | 21.9% | 52.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 14:30 | SVW vs TSG | 33.8% | 21.9% | 44.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 14:30 | BMG vs SCP | 45.3% | 23.5% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 14:30 | FCA vs SCF | 39.4% | 22.4% | 38.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 14:30 | B04 vs VFB | 50.3% | 20.8% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 17:30 | BAY vs BVB | 60.2% | 19.9% | 19.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 14:30 | FCU vs KOE | 40.9% | 24.2% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 16:30 | SGE vs HSV | 50.1% | 22.0% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.