Gameweek 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 18:30 | VFB vs BMG | 63.9% | 19.0% | 17.0% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:30 | SCP vs HSV | 40.6% | 24.7% | 34.6% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:30 | KOE vs S04 | 51.8% | 22.9% | 25.3% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:30 | M05 vs SVW | 55.5% | 21.6% | 23.0% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:30 | FCA vs FCU | 59.5% | 19.8% | 20.8% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 13:30 | RBL vs ELV | 68.2% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 16:30 | BVB vs SGE | 62.0% | 18.7% | 19.3% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:30 | TSG vs B04 | 35.8% | 19.8% | 44.4% | 3-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:30 | SCF vs BAY | 19.7% | 17.9% | 62.4% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.