Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:30 | SGE vs KOE | 49.0% | 19.3% | 31.6% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:30 | ELV vs FCA | 32.8% | 22.5% | 44.7% | 4-3 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:30 | S04 vs M05 | 35.2% | 24.3% | 40.5% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:30 | SVW vs SCP | 48.2% | 23.6% | 28.2% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:30 | HSV vs VFB | 24.8% | 21.7% | 53.5% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 13:30 | FCU vs BVB | 20.1% | 21.0% | 58.9% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 16:30 | BAY vs RBL | 63.5% | 17.7% | 18.9% | 6-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:30 | B04 vs SCF | 58.8% | 18.7% | 22.5% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 15:30 | BMG vs TSG | 31.7% | 22.4% | 45.9% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.