Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 00:00 | ELV vs FCA | 40.6% | 23.1% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | S04 vs M05 | 39.6% | 24.3% | 36.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | SVW vs SCP | 46.3% | 23.5% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | HSV vs VFB | 31.4% | 22.3% | 46.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | BMG vs TSG | 33.6% | 23.0% | 43.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | FCU vs BVB | 24.2% | 21.6% | 54.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | SGE vs KOE | 50.4% | 20.5% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | B04 vs SCF | 57.9% | 19.7% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-16 00:00 | BAY vs RBL | 68.0% | 16.0% | 15.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.