Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 18:30 | BVB vs SVW | 69.6% | 17.5% | 12.9% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 13:30 | SCP vs VFB | 27.6% | 21.4% | 51.0% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 13:30 | FCU vs ELV | 41.0% | 22.7% | 36.2% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 13:30 | M05 vs B04 | 30.3% | 22.1% | 47.6% | 3-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 13:30 | FCA vs BAY | 16.6% | 16.3% | 67.1% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 13:30 | TSG vs HSV | 60.2% | 19.6% | 20.3% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 16:30 | RBL vs SGE | 60.8% | 17.9% | 21.3% | 6-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:30 | KOE vs BMG | 56.9% | 20.1% | 22.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 15:30 | SCF vs S04 | 60.2% | 20.1% | 19.7% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.