Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 00:00 | SCP vs VFB | 27.2% | 20.2% | 52.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | KOE vs BMG | 44.9% | 23.3% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | FCU vs ELV | 49.2% | 22.6% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | M05 vs B04 | 30.7% | 22.5% | 46.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | FCA vs BAY | 15.1% | 15.2% | 69.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | SCF vs S04 | 52.4% | 21.9% | 25.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | TSG vs HSV | 56.8% | 20.8% | 22.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | RBL vs SGE | 58.3% | 18.9% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 00:00 | BVB vs SVW | 69.4% | 17.0% | 13.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.