Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:30 | BAY vs FCU | 77.6% | 12.5% | 9.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | SVW vs FCA | 40.5% | 24.2% | 35.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | HSV vs KOE | 43.5% | 23.5% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | BMG vs M05 | 42.6% | 24.8% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | SGE vs SCF | 46.1% | 21.3% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:30 | VFB vs BVB | 38.1% | 22.4% | 39.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:30 | B04 vs RBL | 46.9% | 21.5% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 15:30 | S04 vs ELV | 45.8% | 23.0% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 17:30 | SCP vs TSG | 29.0% | 21.0% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.