Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:30 | BAY vs FCU | 80.6% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 7-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | SVW vs FCA | 31.6% | 23.4% | 45.0% | 3-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | HSV vs KOE | 37.0% | 22.6% | 40.4% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | BMG vs M05 | 32.6% | 24.3% | 43.1% | 3-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:30 | SGE vs SCF | 38.7% | 20.4% | 41.0% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:30 | VFB vs BVB | 36.9% | 23.0% | 40.1% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:30 | B04 vs RBL | 49.3% | 20.3% | 30.4% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 15:30 | S04 vs ELV | 43.4% | 24.1% | 32.4% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 17:30 | SCP vs TSG | 28.6% | 21.5% | 50.0% | 3-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.