Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:30 | FCU vs S04 | 50.3% | 22.8% | 27.0% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | M05 vs SGE | 45.8% | 21.3% | 32.9% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | FCA vs B04 | 32.4% | 20.7% | 46.9% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | SCF vs BMG | 59.2% | 20.3% | 20.4% | 5-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | TSG vs VFB | 48.5% | 20.3% | 31.2% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | BVB vs SCP | 70.9% | 15.9% | 13.3% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:30 | KOE vs SVW | 51.0% | 22.5% | 26.5% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:30 | RBL vs HSV | 63.4% | 19.1% | 17.4% | 5-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:30 | ELV vs BAY | 16.2% | 14.9% | 68.9% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.