Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:30 | FCU vs S04 | 47.5% | 23.4% | 29.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | M05 vs SGE | 42.0% | 22.4% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | FCA vs B04 | 29.1% | 21.5% | 49.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | SCF vs BMG | 48.3% | 23.2% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | TSG vs VFB | 42.1% | 21.4% | 36.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:30 | BVB vs SCP | 70.8% | 15.6% | 13.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:30 | KOE vs SVW | 49.5% | 22.7% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:30 | RBL vs HSV | 59.7% | 20.2% | 20.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:30 | ELV vs BAY | 16.0% | 14.8% | 69.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.