Gameweek 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 18:30 | VFB vs KOE | 59.7% | 18.6% | 21.7% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:30 | SCP vs SCF | 33.9% | 22.7% | 43.3% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:30 | SVW vs RBL | 23.1% | 21.3% | 55.5% | 3-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:30 | BMG vs ELV | 47.0% | 23.2% | 29.8% | 3-4 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:30 | B04 vs FCU | 61.0% | 19.0% | 20.0% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:30 | TSG vs BVB | 33.0% | 22.2% | 44.8% | 2-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:30 | S04 vs BAY | 14.7% | 14.3% | 71.0% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:30 | HSV vs M05 | 37.7% | 25.9% | 36.5% | 0-5 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 15:30 | SGE vs FCA | 49.8% | 20.8% | 29.4% | 1-4 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.