Gameweek 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 18:30 | BAY vs VFB | 66.0% | 16.6% | 17.4% | 5-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 13:30 | ELV vs B04 | 26.7% | 20.4% | 52.8% | 3-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 13:30 | KOE vs TSG | 34.4% | 21.6% | 44.0% | 3-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 13:30 | FCU vs SGE | 40.8% | 22.2% | 37.0% | 3-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 13:30 | M05 vs SCP | 51.4% | 22.4% | 26.1% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 13:30 | RBL vs BMG | 59.4% | 20.2% | 20.4% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 16:30 | BVB vs HSV | 65.6% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 13:30 | SCF vs SVW | 52.8% | 22.3% | 24.9% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 15:30 | FCA vs S04 | 47.4% | 23.0% | 29.6% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.