Gameweek 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 18:45 | OM vs STR | 49.4% | 22.0% | 28.6% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 15:15 | RCL vs AJA | 60.9% | 21.6% | 17.5% | 5-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | LMFC vs SB29 | 36.5% | 24.5% | 39.0% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | OGC vs FCL | 35.1% | 24.1% | 40.8% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | TFC vs OL | 37.8% | 25.0% | 37.2% | 0-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | EST vs PFC | 34.1% | 24.4% | 41.5% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-23 13:00 | SCO vs LIL | 28.7% | 25.8% | 45.5% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-23 15:15 | HAC vs ASM | 35.9% | 24.8% | 39.2% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-23 18:45 | REN vs PSG | 28.4% | 21.9% | 49.7% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.