Gameweek 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 18:45 | LIL vs PSG | 33.0% | 24.5% | 42.5% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 15:15 | STR vs RCL | 32.6% | 22.6% | 44.9% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 18:45 | AJA vs SCO | 44.2% | 27.2% | 28.6% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 18:45 | SB29 vs TFC | 39.7% | 24.4% | 35.9% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 18:45 | FCL vs EST | 53.9% | 23.2% | 22.9% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 18:45 | OL vs HAC | 55.1% | 24.4% | 20.5% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 13:00 | PFC vs OGC | 52.7% | 23.5% | 23.8% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 15:15 | REN vs LMFC | 62.8% | 19.3% | 18.0% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 18:45 | ASM vs OM | 38.1% | 22.3% | 39.6% | 2-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.