Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 18:45 | TFC vs LIL | 34.2% | 25.3% | 40.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-04 17:00 | OL vs AJA | 56.8% | 23.1% | 20.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-04 19:05 | PSG vs ASM | 63.9% | 18.5% | 17.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 15:15 | RCL vs FCL | 60.5% | 20.3% | 19.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | HAC vs SB29 | 42.0% | 26.2% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | OGC vs LMFC | 47.0% | 24.6% | 28.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | EST vs STR | 31.6% | 23.7% | 44.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 15:15 | SCO vs REN | 31.0% | 24.4% | 44.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 18:45 | OM vs PFC | 56.7% | 21.3% | 22.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.