Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 18:45 | TFC vs LIL | 35.8% | 26.0% | 38.2% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-04 17:00 | OL vs AJA | 59.1% | 21.5% | 19.4% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-04 19:05 | PSG vs ASM | 63.4% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 15:15 | RCL vs FCL | 66.5% | 18.3% | 15.3% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | HAC vs SB29 | 37.2% | 26.4% | 36.5% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | OGC vs LMFC | 40.3% | 25.0% | 34.7% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | EST vs STR | 36.8% | 24.4% | 38.8% | 2-6 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 15:15 | SCO vs REN | 30.6% | 23.3% | 46.1% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-06 18:45 | OM vs PFC | 53.3% | 23.1% | 23.6% | 2-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.