Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:45 | REN vs OM | 39.3% | 22.4% | 38.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 15:15 | STR vs ASM | 44.5% | 22.3% | 33.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | AJA vs OGC | 46.3% | 25.6% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | HAC vs SCO | 43.8% | 28.3% | 28.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | FCL vs TFC | 43.7% | 24.7% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | PFC vs OL | 35.1% | 25.1% | 39.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | LIL vs EST | 62.3% | 20.8% | 16.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:15 | LMFC vs RCL | 21.7% | 20.1% | 58.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 18:45 | SB29 vs PSG | 21.3% | 20.1% | 58.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.