Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:45 | REN vs OM | 48.1% | 21.5% | 30.4% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 15:15 | STR vs ASM | 44.1% | 23.1% | 32.8% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | AJA vs OGC | 51.7% | 24.4% | 24.0% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | HAC vs SCO | 39.8% | 29.3% | 30.9% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | FCL vs TFC | 44.3% | 25.7% | 30.0% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | PFC vs OL | 33.9% | 24.3% | 41.8% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | LIL vs EST | 58.4% | 22.0% | 19.6% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 15:15 | LMFC vs RCL | 21.6% | 19.8% | 58.7% | 2-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 18:45 | SB29 vs PSG | 24.7% | 20.6% | 54.7% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.