Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:45 | ASM vs RCL | 33.6% | 23.1% | 43.2% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 15:15 | PFC vs STR | 42.1% | 24.3% | 33.5% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | SCO vs EST | 48.5% | 26.2% | 25.3% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | LMFC vs FCL | 36.1% | 24.1% | 39.8% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | OL vs REN | 48.3% | 22.4% | 29.2% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | TFC vs HAC | 46.3% | 27.9% | 25.8% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | AJA vs SB29 | 40.3% | 24.2% | 35.5% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 15:15 | OGC vs LIL | 23.9% | 25.4% | 50.7% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 18:45 | OM vs PSG | 30.5% | 23.2% | 46.3% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.