Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 22:00 | SCO vs EST | 44.9% | 26.4% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | AJA vs SB29 | 42.3% | 25.2% | 32.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | LMFC vs FCL | 32.9% | 24.4% | 42.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | OL vs REN | 48.4% | 23.0% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | OM vs PSG | 34.8% | 22.8% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | ASM vs RCL | 33.8% | 22.3% | 43.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | OGC vs LIL | 26.5% | 24.0% | 49.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | PFC vs STR | 41.3% | 23.9% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-18 22:00 | TFC vs HAC | 47.2% | 26.2% | 26.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.