Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 22:00 | SB29 vs SCO | 47.0% | 25.0% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | RCL vs OL | 50.9% | 23.1% | 26.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | LIL vs HAC | 55.8% | 24.3% | 19.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | FCL vs PFC | 43.9% | 24.7% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | ASM vs TFC | 49.2% | 22.7% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | OGC vs STR | 32.3% | 23.6% | 44.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | PSG vs LMFC | 74.9% | 14.3% | 10.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | REN vs AJA | 55.4% | 22.2% | 22.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-09 22:00 | EST vs OM | 25.4% | 21.8% | 52.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.