Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 18:45 | RCL vs OL | 44.9% | 23.3% | 31.7% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 15:15 | LIL vs HAC | 54.6% | 26.1% | 19.3% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 18:45 | SB29 vs SCO | 48.2% | 24.6% | 27.2% | 5-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 18:45 | FCL vs PFC | 37.4% | 26.2% | 36.5% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 18:45 | ASM vs TFC | 51.6% | 23.4% | 25.0% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 18:45 | PSG vs LMFC | 71.3% | 16.8% | 12.0% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | OGC vs STR | 29.7% | 24.7% | 45.6% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 15:15 | REN vs AJA | 55.5% | 21.4% | 23.2% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 18:45 | EST vs OM | 27.4% | 23.7% | 48.9% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.