Gameweek 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:45 | LMFC vs TFC | 38.4% | 24.4% | 37.2% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 15:15 | STR vs PSG | 28.3% | 23.5% | 48.2% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-17 18:45 | LIL vs SB29 | 53.0% | 22.8% | 24.2% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-17 18:45 | EST vs RCL | 19.7% | 19.7% | 60.6% | 1-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 13:00 | SCO vs OM | 27.5% | 25.4% | 47.1% | 2-5 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 15:15 | HAC vs AJA | 42.8% | 29.1% | 28.1% | 1-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 15:15 | FCL vs ASM | 36.1% | 25.4% | 38.5% | 1-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-18 15:15 | PFC vs REN | 38.2% | 23.9% | 37.9% | 4-3 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-18 18:45 | OL vs OGC | 63.3% | 21.1% | 15.6% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.