Gameweek 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 18:45 | SB29 vs OGC | 57.5% | 21.8% | 20.7% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-24 18:45 | RCL vs PFC | 60.6% | 20.5% | 18.9% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 14:00 | ASM vs LIL | 42.0% | 26.0% | 32.0% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:15 | SCO vs FCL | 33.5% | 27.7% | 38.8% | 0-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:15 | AJA vs LMFC | 44.7% | 24.9% | 30.4% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:15 | OM vs HAC | 65.6% | 19.5% | 15.0% | 4-3 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:15 | REN vs STR | 52.9% | 20.7% | 26.4% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-25 16:15 | TFC vs EST | 58.1% | 22.3% | 19.7% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-26 19:30 | PSG vs OL | 52.6% | 24.3% | 23.1% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.