Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 18:00 | HAC vs PSG | 18.7% | 21.5% | 59.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-30 20:05 | LIL vs RCL | 40.1% | 25.4% | 34.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 16:15 | OGC vs REN | 30.2% | 22.7% | 47.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-31 19:45 | FCL vs SB29 | 46.9% | 24.5% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 19:45 | OL vs SCO | 60.7% | 22.1% | 17.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-31 19:45 | EST vs LMFC | 42.6% | 25.3% | 32.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 14:00 | STR vs AJA | 53.1% | 22.5% | 24.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 16:15 | PFC vs ASM | 40.6% | 24.2% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-01 19:45 | OM vs TFC | 53.9% | 21.5% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.