Gameweek 9
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 23:00 | HAC vs PSG | 21.3% | 22.8% | 55.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | LIL vs RCL | 39.0% | 24.4% | 36.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | FCL vs SB29 | 48.9% | 23.4% | 27.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | OL vs SCO | 58.7% | 22.7% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | OM vs TFC | 56.5% | 21.3% | 22.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | OGC vs REN | 30.4% | 23.0% | 46.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | PFC vs ASM | 40.4% | 23.5% | 36.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | STR vs AJA | 52.8% | 23.1% | 24.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-30 23:00 | EST vs LMFC | 45.3% | 25.0% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.