Gameweek 10
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-06 19:45 | TFC vs STR | 45.4% | 23.3% | 31.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-07 16:15 | AJA vs PFC | 33.7% | 25.2% | 41.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-07 19:45 | PSG vs EST | 75.7% | 14.5% | 9.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 14:00 | REN vs LIL | 41.1% | 23.9% | 35.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:15 | SCO vs OGC | 41.7% | 26.6% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:15 | SB29 vs OL | 31.4% | 24.2% | 44.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:15 | HAC vs FCL | 34.9% | 27.5% | 37.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 16:15 | LMFC vs ASM | 27.2% | 22.6% | 50.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-08 19:45 | RCL vs OM | 49.3% | 21.8% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.