Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-20 23:00 | RCL vs TFC | 60.1% | 20.5% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | LIL vs OL | 44.6% | 25.1% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | FCL vs REN | 39.3% | 23.5% | 37.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | OM vs LMFC | 67.7% | 17.4% | 14.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | ASM vs AJA | 54.3% | 22.4% | 23.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | OGC vs PSG | 18.5% | 19.4% | 62.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | PFC vs SCO | 50.4% | 25.0% | 24.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | STR vs SB29 | 53.2% | 21.7% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-20 23:00 | EST vs HAC | 37.5% | 27.5% | 35.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.