Gameweek 11
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-20 19:45 | EST vs HAC | 37.3% | 27.1% | 35.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 16:15 | OGC vs PSG | 18.4% | 20.3% | 61.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-21 19:45 | RCL vs TFC | 56.1% | 21.8% | 22.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 19:45 | LIL vs OL | 42.0% | 26.5% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 19:45 | ASM vs AJA | 58.1% | 21.6% | 20.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-21 19:45 | STR vs SB29 | 49.6% | 22.1% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 14:00 | PFC vs SCO | 54.7% | 23.6% | 21.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 16:15 | FCL vs REN | 38.4% | 23.8% | 37.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-22 19:45 | OM vs LMFC | 67.8% | 17.1% | 15.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.