Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 19:45 | SB29 vs PFC | 38.3% | 24.2% | 37.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 16:15 | SCO vs RCL | 23.9% | 23.1% | 53.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 19:45 | HAC vs STR | 35.1% | 25.0% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 19:45 | LMFC vs LIL | 25.0% | 23.7% | 51.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-28 19:45 | OGC vs EST | 47.8% | 25.3% | 26.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-28 19:45 | PSG vs FCL | 64.6% | 19.9% | 15.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 14:00 | AJA vs OM | 28.0% | 22.4% | 49.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-29 16:15 | TFC vs REN | 40.2% | 22.9% | 36.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-29 19:45 | OL vs ASM | 47.4% | 24.1% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.