Gameweek 12
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-27 23:00 | SCO vs RCL | 23.2% | 22.8% | 54.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | AJA vs OM | 28.3% | 23.5% | 48.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | SB29 vs PFC | 40.0% | 24.4% | 35.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | HAC vs STR | 35.4% | 25.8% | 38.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | LMFC vs LIL | 25.1% | 22.7% | 52.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | OL vs ASM | 49.8% | 22.7% | 27.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | OGC vs EST | 45.0% | 25.3% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | PSG vs FCL | 66.1% | 18.4% | 15.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 11-27 23:00 | TFC vs REN | 39.4% | 23.6% | 37.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.