Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04 23:00 | RCL vs HAC | 62.6% | 20.9% | 16.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | LIL vs AJA | 58.0% | 22.8% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | OM vs OGC | 65.6% | 18.5% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | ASM vs SCO | 56.5% | 22.2% | 21.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | PFC vs LMFC | 55.8% | 22.4% | 21.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | REN vs SB29 | 56.0% | 20.9% | 23.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | STR vs FCL | 48.0% | 23.1% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | TFC vs PSG | 24.9% | 22.1% | 53.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-04 23:00 | EST vs OL | 27.2% | 24.0% | 48.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.