Gameweek 13
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-04 19:45 | TFC vs PSG | 25.2% | 22.7% | 52.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-05 16:15 | LIL vs AJA | 58.7% | 22.8% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 19:45 | RCL vs HAC | 63.6% | 20.3% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 19:45 | ASM vs SCO | 59.1% | 21.8% | 19.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 19:45 | PFC vs LMFC | 59.0% | 21.3% | 19.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-05 19:45 | STR vs FCL | 44.7% | 24.3% | 31.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 14:00 | EST vs OL | 23.9% | 23.6% | 52.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-06 16:15 | REN vs SB29 | 56.4% | 20.2% | 23.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-06 19:45 | OM vs OGC | 63.7% | 19.1% | 17.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.