Gameweek 14
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-11 19:45 | AJA vs TFC | 34.8% | 25.4% | 39.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 16:15 | PSG vs PFC | 63.5% | 19.7% | 16.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 19:45 | SCO vs STR | 33.9% | 24.6% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-12 19:45 | SB29 vs EST | 54.3% | 22.8% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 19:45 | HAC vs LMFC | 47.3% | 25.4% | 27.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-12 19:45 | OGC vs RCL | 24.6% | 22.7% | 52.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 14:00 | FCL vs LIL | 33.9% | 27.1% | 39.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 16:15 | REN vs ASM | 45.5% | 22.1% | 32.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 19:45 | OL vs OM | 45.1% | 23.3% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.