Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-01 23:00 | SB29 vs OM | 29.5% | 22.1% | 48.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | LMFC vs OL | 26.1% | 23.0% | 50.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | RCL vs PSG | 39.1% | 23.3% | 37.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | LIL vs STR | 51.8% | 22.7% | 25.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | FCL vs AJA | 48.6% | 24.9% | 26.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | ASM vs OGC | 58.9% | 20.6% | 20.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | PFC vs HAC | 47.0% | 26.3% | 26.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | TFC vs SCO | 50.7% | 25.0% | 24.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-01 23:00 | EST vs REN | 29.8% | 23.1% | 47.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.