Gameweek 15
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-02 16:00 | SB29 vs OM | 32.1% | 22.0% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-02 20:00 | FCL vs AJA | 50.0% | 25.1% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 20:00 | ASM vs OGC | 58.9% | 21.4% | 19.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 20:00 | PFC vs HAC | 53.0% | 24.3% | 22.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 20:00 | TFC vs SCO | 53.4% | 24.0% | 22.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-02 20:00 | EST vs REN | 26.3% | 21.8% | 51.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 14:00 | LMFC vs OL | 24.7% | 23.0% | 52.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 16:15 | LIL vs STR | 52.7% | 23.1% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 19:45 | RCL vs PSG | 35.3% | 23.8% | 40.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.