Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-15 19:45 | OM vs LIL | 44.4% | 23.9% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 16:15 | SCO vs PSG | 17.8% | 20.7% | 61.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 19:45 | AJA vs EST | 48.8% | 25.1% | 26.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 19:45 | OGC vs HAC | 41.8% | 26.9% | 31.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-16 19:45 | REN vs RCL | 38.4% | 22.3% | 39.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-16 19:45 | STR vs LMFC | 58.7% | 20.6% | 20.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 14:00 | PFC vs TFC | 45.1% | 24.5% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 16:15 | ASM vs SB29 | 55.1% | 21.5% | 23.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 19:45 | OL vs FCL | 52.0% | 24.6% | 23.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.