Gameweek 17
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-22 19:45 | EST vs ASM | 26.3% | 23.2% | 50.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-23 16:15 | LIL vs PFC | 49.3% | 24.9% | 25.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 19:45 | LMFC vs SCO | 40.1% | 25.9% | 33.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 19:45 | RCL vs SB29 | 61.9% | 19.6% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 19:45 | PSG vs AJA | 72.3% | 16.3% | 11.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-23 19:45 | TFC vs OGC | 53.2% | 23.5% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 14:00 | HAC vs REN | 30.5% | 23.6% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 16:15 | FCL vs OM | 35.0% | 23.9% | 41.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 19:45 | STR vs OL | 35.2% | 24.1% | 40.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.