Gameweek 18
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-29 19:45 | SB29 vs STR | 40.9% | 23.0% | 36.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 16:15 | ASM vs PSG | 29.4% | 23.1% | 47.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-30 19:45 | SCO vs HAC | 40.5% | 27.7% | 31.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 19:45 | LMFC vs OGC | 39.7% | 25.3% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 19:45 | PFC vs AJA | 53.7% | 23.4% | 23.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-30 19:45 | TFC vs RCL | 33.0% | 23.9% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-31 14:00 | REN vs FCL | 51.0% | 22.6% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 16:15 | OM vs EST | 67.8% | 17.6% | 14.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 19:45 | OL vs LIL | 42.9% | 26.5% | 30.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.