Gameweek 19
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-05 23:00 | AJA vs ASM | 30.6% | 24.1% | 45.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | HAC vs TFC | 34.1% | 26.3% | 39.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | RCL vs SCO | 65.3% | 19.5% | 15.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | FCL vs LMFC | 55.3% | 23.1% | 21.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | OGC vs SB29 | 38.6% | 24.8% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | PSG vs OM | 58.9% | 20.0% | 21.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | REN vs OL | 41.0% | 23.4% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | STR vs PFC | 42.7% | 23.6% | 33.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-05 23:00 | EST vs LIL | 24.2% | 24.4% | 51.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.