Gameweek 20
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-12 23:00 | AJA vs STR | 35.9% | 24.1% | 40.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | SB29 vs REN | 35.6% | 22.1% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | LMFC vs PSG | 17.0% | 18.2% | 64.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | LIL vs OGC | 59.4% | 22.5% | 18.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | FCL vs HAC | 49.4% | 26.0% | 24.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | OL vs RCL | 40.9% | 24.7% | 34.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | OM vs SCO | 63.8% | 19.4% | 16.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | PFC vs EST | 59.0% | 21.9% | 19.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-12 23:00 | TFC vs ASM | 39.3% | 24.3% | 36.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.