Gameweek 21
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-19 23:00 | SCO vs PFC | 31.9% | 25.8% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | HAC vs OL | 27.2% | 25.8% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | LIL vs FCL | 50.8% | 25.5% | 23.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | ASM vs LMFC | 63.3% | 19.4% | 17.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | OGC vs AJA | 42.1% | 25.9% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | PSG vs SB29 | 70.3% | 16.6% | 13.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | REN vs TFC | 50.5% | 22.0% | 27.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | STR vs OM | 36.3% | 21.9% | 41.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-19 23:00 | RCL vs EST | 69.0% | 17.6% | 13.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.