Gameweek 22
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-26 23:00 | AJA vs LIL | 27.8% | 25.6% | 46.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | SB29 vs ASM | 35.0% | 23.4% | 41.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | LMFC vs PFC | 30.1% | 23.9% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | FCL vs SCO | 51.0% | 25.4% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | OL vs TFC | 51.7% | 23.9% | 24.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | OM vs REN | 50.6% | 20.5% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | PSG vs RCL | 54.0% | 22.1% | 23.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | STR vs HAC | 52.6% | 23.3% | 24.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-26 23:00 | EST vs OGC | 38.3% | 26.2% | 35.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.