Gameweek 23
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05 23:00 | SCO vs AJA | 40.8% | 26.6% | 32.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | HAC vs OGC | 42.8% | 26.8% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | RCL vs STR | 58.4% | 20.3% | 21.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | LIL vs OM | 44.2% | 24.0% | 31.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | ASM vs OL | 40.4% | 24.8% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | PFC vs SB29 | 50.5% | 23.0% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | REN vs PSG | 29.2% | 21.6% | 49.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | TFC vs LMFC | 57.8% | 21.7% | 20.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-05 23:00 | EST vs FCL | 31.0% | 26.0% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.