Gameweek 24
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-12 23:00 | AJA vs PSG | 18.8% | 20.5% | 60.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | SB29 vs LIL | 31.7% | 24.9% | 43.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | HAC vs RCL | 24.9% | 23.7% | 51.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | LMFC vs REN | 27.2% | 21.3% | 51.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | OL vs EST | 64.6% | 20.1% | 15.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | OM vs ASM | 49.1% | 21.8% | 29.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | OGC vs TFC | 34.0% | 25.4% | 40.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | PFC vs FCL | 45.7% | 25.3% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-12 23:00 | STR vs SCO | 54.3% | 22.7% | 23.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.