Gameweek 25
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-19 23:00 | SCO vs LMFC | 46.2% | 25.3% | 28.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | RCL vs LIL | 46.8% | 24.7% | 28.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | FCL vs OGC | 50.8% | 24.9% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | OM vs OL | 44.4% | 23.4% | 32.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | ASM vs HAC | 57.4% | 22.5% | 20.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | PSG vs STR | 67.3% | 17.6% | 15.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | REN vs PFC | 49.0% | 22.2% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | TFC vs SB29 | 49.2% | 23.3% | 27.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 03-19 23:00 | EST vs AJA | 37.4% | 26.2% | 36.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.