Gameweek 26
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 22:00 | SCO vs ASM | 29.0% | 24.5% | 46.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | AJA vs RCL | 25.2% | 22.8% | 51.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | SB29 vs FCL | 40.4% | 25.1% | 34.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | HAC vs EST | 47.5% | 26.2% | 26.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | LMFC vs OM | 24.6% | 20.7% | 54.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | LIL vs REN | 47.9% | 23.3% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | OGC vs OL | 26.9% | 24.7% | 48.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | PFC vs PSG | 26.3% | 23.0% | 50.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-02 22:00 | STR vs TFC | 44.0% | 23.5% | 32.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.