Gameweek 27
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-09 22:00 | LMFC vs AJA | 38.9% | 25.3% | 35.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | LIL vs TFC | 50.6% | 24.7% | 24.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | FCL vs RCL | 31.6% | 24.7% | 43.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | OL vs STR | 53.8% | 22.3% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | OM vs SB29 | 59.9% | 19.5% | 20.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | ASM vs REN | 46.0% | 22.0% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | OGC vs PFC | 32.9% | 25.2% | 41.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | PSG vs HAC | 71.2% | 17.3% | 11.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-09 22:00 | EST vs SCO | 38.6% | 26.9% | 34.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.