Gameweek 28
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 22:00 | SCO vs OL | 26.1% | 25.2% | 48.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | AJA vs FCL | 35.7% | 26.4% | 37.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | SB29 vs LMFC | 54.1% | 22.2% | 23.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | HAC vs OM | 27.6% | 23.2% | 49.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | RCL vs OGC | 65.2% | 19.2% | 15.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | ASM vs STR | 51.3% | 21.9% | 26.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | PSG vs LIL | 55.4% | 23.2% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | REN vs EST | 65.0% | 18.5% | 16.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-16 22:00 | TFC vs PFC | 42.5% | 24.8% | 32.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.