Gameweek 29
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-23 22:00 | LMFC vs HAC | 38.8% | 26.2% | 35.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | LIL vs ASM | 46.4% | 24.8% | 28.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | FCL vs PSG | 24.2% | 23.4% | 52.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | OL vs SB29 | 57.3% | 21.8% | 20.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | OM vs AJA | 62.9% | 19.3% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | OGC vs SCO | 43.3% | 26.5% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | PFC vs RCL | 34.3% | 24.0% | 41.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | STR vs REN | 40.0% | 21.8% | 38.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-23 22:00 | EST vs TFC | 30.1% | 24.8% | 45.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.