Gameweek 30
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-30 22:00 | AJA vs OL | 27.6% | 24.8% | 47.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | HAC vs PFC | 33.0% | 26.2% | 40.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | RCL vs LMFC | 69.2% | 17.1% | 13.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | ASM vs FCL | 49.9% | 24.0% | 26.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | PSG vs SCO | 72.8% | 16.4% | 10.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | REN vs OGC | 60.6% | 20.0% | 19.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | STR vs LIL | 35.4% | 24.7% | 39.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | TFC vs OM | 36.6% | 23.1% | 40.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 04-30 22:00 | EST vs SB29 | 34.1% | 24.7% | 41.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.