Gameweek 31
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-07 22:00 | SCO vs TFC | 33.0% | 25.9% | 41.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | SB29 vs AJA | 48.5% | 23.8% | 27.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | LMFC vs EST | 44.6% | 25.1% | 30.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | RCL vs ASM | 51.6% | 22.3% | 26.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | FCL vs STR | 43.3% | 24.4% | 32.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | OL vs PSG | 32.2% | 24.8% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | OGC vs OM | 27.2% | 22.3% | 50.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | PFC vs LIL | 36.7% | 26.1% | 37.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-07 22:00 | REN vs HAC | 59.0% | 21.0% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.