Gameweek 32
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-15 22:00 | AJA vs REN | 31.0% | 22.8% | 46.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | SB29 vs HAC | 48.0% | 24.7% | 27.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | LIL vs SCO | 59.5% | 23.0% | 17.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | OL vs LMFC | 64.8% | 19.5% | 15.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | OM vs RCL | 42.0% | 22.5% | 35.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | ASM vs PFC | 48.1% | 23.5% | 28.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | PSG vs OGC | 72.8% | 16.1% | 11.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | STR vs EST | 58.8% | 21.1% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-15 22:00 | TFC vs FCL | 44.4% | 25.5% | 30.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.