Gameweek 33
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 22:00 | SCO vs SB29 | 37.5% | 25.4% | 37.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | HAC vs LIL | 27.3% | 26.6% | 46.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | LMFC vs STR | 31.8% | 23.0% | 45.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | RCL vs REN | 53.3% | 20.9% | 25.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | FCL vs OL | 33.8% | 26.4% | 39.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | OGC vs ASM | 29.9% | 24.1% | 46.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | PFC vs OM | 38.0% | 23.1% | 38.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | TFC vs AJA | 52.4% | 23.7% | 23.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-21 22:00 | EST vs PSG | 16.5% | 18.7% | 64.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.