Gameweek 34
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-28 22:00 | AJA vs HAC | 42.7% | 26.7% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | SB29 vs RCL | 28.9% | 22.5% | 48.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | LIL vs LMFC | 63.6% | 20.4% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | OL vs PFC | 50.4% | 24.1% | 25.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | OM vs FCL | 54.3% | 22.1% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | ASM vs EST | 63.2% | 20.0% | 16.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | PSG vs TFC | 64.7% | 19.3% | 16.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | REN vs SCO | 60.8% | 20.3% | 18.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-28 22:00 | STR vs OGC | 54.0% | 22.3% | 23.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.