Gameweek 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-22 16:30 | INT vs MON | 72.6% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 4-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-22 16:30 | UDI vs COM | 30.9% | 25.2% | 44.0% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | GEN vs NAP | 27.6% | 24.9% | 47.6% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-22 18:45 | PAR vs CAG | 39.8% | 27.9% | 32.2% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 16:30 | FRO vs JUV | 23.9% | 23.8% | 52.2% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-23 16:30 | VEN vs LEC | 40.1% | 27.7% | 32.2% | 0-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 18:45 | ATA vs SAS | 52.0% | 23.9% | 24.1% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-23 18:45 | TOR vs MIL | 28.4% | 24.1% | 47.5% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-24 16:30 | BOL vs LAZ | 44.5% | 26.0% | 29.5% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-24 18:45 | ROM vs FIO | 59.1% | 22.2% | 18.7% | 4-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.