Gameweek 2
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 18:45 | MIL vs VEN | 62.2% | 21.1% | 16.8% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 16:30 | FIO vs FRO | 48.6% | 25.5% | 25.9% | 0-3 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 16:30 | MON vs UDI | 32.6% | 25.7% | 41.7% | 2-3 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-29 16:30 | SAS vs TOR | 49.2% | 23.7% | 27.2% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-29 18:45 | JUV vs PAR | 57.5% | 24.3% | 18.3% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 16:30 | NAP vs COM | 43.1% | 25.7% | 31.2% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-30 18:45 | CAG vs INT | 20.8% | 21.1% | 58.2% | 0-1 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-30 18:45 | LAZ vs GEN | 48.8% | 25.9% | 25.3% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 08-31 16:30 | LEC vs ROM | 23.2% | 24.9% | 51.9% | 0-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 08-31 18:45 | ATA vs BOL | 48.1% | 25.0% | 26.9% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.