Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 18:45 | GEN vs COM | 21.9% | 23.1% | 55.1% | 1-4 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:00 | FIO vs TOR | 36.7% | 25.1% | 38.2% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:00 | INT vs NAP | 53.0% | 23.0% | 24.0% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | ROM vs ATA | 57.3% | 22.7% | 20.0% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | FRO vs VEN | 41.7% | 26.5% | 31.8% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | PAR vs MON | 43.0% | 26.9% | 30.1% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:00 | BOL vs SAS | 42.5% | 25.3% | 32.2% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 18:45 | JUV vs MIL | 48.2% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 16:30 | CAG vs LEC | 45.7% | 27.7% | 26.6% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 18:45 | UDI vs LAZ | 37.0% | 26.6% | 36.4% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.