Gameweek 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 18:45 | GEN vs COM | 26.8% | 24.6% | 48.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-05 13:00 | FIO vs TOR | 44.4% | 24.7% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 16:00 | INT vs NAP | 52.4% | 22.9% | 24.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-05 18:45 | ROM vs ATA | 49.7% | 24.6% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | FRO vs VEN | 41.2% | 27.0% | 31.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 13:00 | PAR vs MON | 44.8% | 27.5% | 27.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 16:00 | BOL vs SAS | 47.2% | 24.7% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-06 18:45 | JUV vs MIL | 43.6% | 26.0% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 16:00 | CAG vs LEC | 44.9% | 27.0% | 28.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-07 18:45 | UDI vs LAZ | 40.3% | 27.0% | 32.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.