Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:45 | VEN vs FIO | 36.9% | 26.5% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 00:00 | SAS vs JUV | 31.3% | 25.4% | 43.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:00 | GEN vs FRO | 48.9% | 25.6% | 25.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | ATA vs CAG | 54.3% | 23.7% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | COM vs PAR | 59.5% | 23.2% | 17.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | LAZ vs MIL | 35.0% | 27.1% | 37.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 00:00 | TOR vs ROM | 23.7% | 22.5% | 53.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | LEC vs MON | 45.0% | 26.8% | 28.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 16:00 | NAP vs BOL | 53.7% | 23.7% | 22.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-14 18:45 | INT vs UDI | 65.9% | 18.6% | 15.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.