Gameweek 4
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 18:45 | VEN vs FIO | 43.7% | 26.0% | 30.4% | 2-4 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 13:00 | GEN vs FRO | 46.2% | 25.7% | 28.1% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 16:00 | LAZ vs MIL | 40.3% | 27.5% | 32.3% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-12 18:45 | ATA vs CAG | 50.7% | 26.2% | 23.1% | 1-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 13:00 | LEC vs MON | 39.4% | 26.9% | 33.7% | 3-2 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 16:00 | NAP vs BOL | 57.9% | 22.2% | 20.0% | 1-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-13 18:45 | SAS vs JUV | 31.5% | 24.1% | 44.3% | 3-2 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-14 16:30 | COM vs PAR | 66.2% | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-14 16:30 | TOR vs ROM | 21.9% | 20.4% | 57.7% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-14 18:45 | INT vs UDI | 67.1% | 18.0% | 14.9% | 5-3 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.