Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:45 | MON vs SAS | 32.6% | 23.1% | 44.3% | 2-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:00 | BOL vs TOR | 46.4% | 24.8% | 28.8% | 1-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:00 | UDI vs CAG | 45.1% | 26.2% | 28.8% | 0-1 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:00 | ROM vs INT | 40.0% | 23.7% | 36.3% | 2-2 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | VEN vs LAZ | 27.3% | 24.2% | 48.6% | 0-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 10:30 | FIO vs NAP | 20.5% | 21.8% | 57.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | FRO vs COM | 20.2% | 21.1% | 58.7% | 2-0 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | PAR vs GEN | 40.2% | 28.3% | 31.4% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 16:00 | JUV vs ATA | 51.9% | 24.5% | 23.7% | 2-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 18:45 | MIL vs LEC | 62.8% | 21.6% | 15.6% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.