Gameweek 5
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 18:45 | MON vs SAS | 34.2% | 25.5% | 40.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:00 | BOL vs TOR | 53.1% | 23.1% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 13:00 | UDI vs CAG | 46.7% | 25.4% | 27.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-19 16:00 | ROM vs INT | 37.0% | 24.4% | 38.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-19 18:45 | VEN vs LAZ | 30.3% | 26.8% | 42.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 10:30 | FIO vs NAP | 25.6% | 24.4% | 50.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | FRO vs COM | 22.9% | 23.4% | 53.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-20 13:00 | PAR vs GEN | 39.3% | 28.4% | 32.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 16:00 | JUV vs ATA | 45.4% | 25.7% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 09-20 18:45 | MIL vs LEC | 58.1% | 23.4% | 18.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.