Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 00:00 | ATA vs VEN | 60.5% | 21.7% | 17.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | CAG vs JUV | 29.1% | 25.6% | 45.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | COM vs ROM | 41.2% | 25.7% | 33.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | GEN vs FIO | 43.1% | 25.9% | 31.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | INT vs PAR | 69.7% | 18.1% | 12.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | LAZ vs MON | 54.3% | 24.2% | 21.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | LEC vs BOL | 32.8% | 27.2% | 40.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | NAP vs FRO | 65.7% | 19.7% | 14.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | SAS vs MIL | 32.3% | 25.3% | 42.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-10 00:00 | TOR vs UDI | 36.6% | 25.0% | 38.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" links use current ratings, so for played matches they may differ slightly from the pregame numbers shown here.