Gameweek 6
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 13:00 | GEN vs FIO | 44.9% | 25.8% | 29.3% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 16:00 | INT vs PAR | 71.9% | 16.7% | 11.4% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-10 18:45 | NAP vs FRO | 65.7% | 19.8% | 14.5% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 10:30 | COM vs ROM | 39.4% | 24.1% | 36.4% | 0-0 | ✗ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | LAZ vs MON | 58.6% | 21.6% | 19.8% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-11 13:00 | LEC vs BOL | 30.3% | 28.5% | 41.2% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 16:00 | SAS vs MIL | 33.9% | 24.3% | 41.7% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-11 18:45 | CAG vs JUV | 26.1% | 25.5% | 48.4% | 1-1 | ✗ AWAY | analysis → |
| 10-12 16:30 | ATA vs VEN | 57.2% | 22.8% | 20.0% | 3-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-12 18:45 | TOR vs UDI | 43.5% | 24.2% | 32.3% | 2-1 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.